EBRD downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economy: what to prepare for.

Forecast for Ukraine's Economic Development

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2025, lowering the expected GDP growth from 3.5% to 3.3%. The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 5.0%, but the bank emphasizes that its implementation depends on the cessation of the war.

According to the new macroeconomic forecast, the EBRD notes that 'global trade pressures and the war are affecting economic expectations for 2025.' Factors of uncertainty include increasing international instability and trade conflicts that impact exports and investment flows.

In 2024, Ukraine's economic growth slowed down: in the first half of the year, GDP grew by 5.0%, while in the second half it only grew by 2.0%. For the year as a whole, growth was 2.9%, driven by electricity shortages, poor harvests, and labor shortages.

Despite the downgrade of the 2025 forecast, the EBRD highlights positive macroeconomic signals, such as stable external financing through the EU's Ukraine Facility and expected inflows from G7 countries from frozen Russian assets, which are set to support the budget and macroeconomic stability.

It is also expected that economic growth in the medium term will be supported by government consumption, particularly through military procurement from Ukrainian producers, which stimulates domestic demand.

Interestingly, the number of individual entrepreneurs in Ukraine has sharply decreased, which may also impact the economic situation in the country.